The Difficult Transition
Patterns of Growth and Change in the Mozambican Economy

D – Saggistica varia

The paper discusses persistent problems in the Mozambican economy against the background of the growth process that the country has experienced since the late nineties. The emphasis on the “green revolution” in government policy has not yet produced the upgrading of technology in small scale, household farming. Mozambique’s agricultural exports remain concentrated in a few primary goods, and an export driven manufacturing sector has not yet emerged; the largest quota of the value of exports is provided by aluminium, electricity and natural gas. The country is developing along a pattern of specialization based on low productivity agriculture and on foreign direct investment in aluminium, electricity and mining, with low spillovers to other industries. In case of increasing rural exodus, the younger generation will fail to find stable urban employment, with risks of social polarization. On a long-term horizon, the country should cut dependency from foreign aid, freeing the State apparatus from the symbiosis between public tasks and foreign aid. Gradual emancipation from foreign aid and poverty reduction require entering the path of diversification and changing specialization in world trade. Opinions diverge on the policies to be adopted, the focus being either on the institutional framework and removing the obstacles to doing business in Mozambique, or on national strategies for developing national industries by integrating logistics, training and services.

SINTESI